No Post-convention Bounce for Biden; Trump Gains Four Points Instead
Written by Bob Adelmann
The liberal Washington Post saw what was coming and warned its mostly Democrat readers last Thursday not to expect much of a bounce in the polls for the Democrat Party’s presidential nominee Joe Biden. Journalist Karen Tumulty provided some excuses: “It won’t be surprising if the polls don’t show a “bounce” from a four-night political event.… The nightly audiences were smaller than they have been for recent party conventions. And those had been losing viewers over the decades since they have lost their suspense and [have instead] turned into infomercials.”
She suggested that the best that could be hoped for would be that Biden wouldn’t lose any of his “support,” which Tumulty called “soft.” By “soft,” she means that most of Biden’s lead over President Trump is made up of voters who are “still not sure which candidate [they’ll] vote for, or whether they’ll vote at all.” In addition, said Tumulty, “most of all … Biden [failed to provide] a vision for how to rescue America” from Donald Trump.
On Saturday, Tumulty’s worst fears were confirmed. The online research company Morning Consult asked more than 4,300 likely voters if the Democratic National Convention had made any change in their opinion or their voting. The company reported that the margins were “statistically unchanged” from those of a group of 4,100 likely voters polled just before the convention began.
In other words, the convention failed to move anyone’s needle, one way or the other.
On Monday, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll failed to give Biden even the modest bounce that some had expected. In fact, the pollsters recontacted respondents who participated in a pre-convention poll just to see if there had been any change. Reported Yahoo: “The head-to-head numbers between Biden and Trump were essentially unchanged.” This was disappointing because “since 1968 candidates’ vote shares in national polls have increased by an average of five percentage points after conventions.”
Put another way, not only did Biden not get a bounce of an expected five percent based on past conventions, he scarcely registered any measurable improvement at all.
At the same time, Scott Rasmussen reported in his regular Wednesday’s White House Watch that “Biden has lost ground since the close of the Democratic National Convention, and he and President Trump are now running neck-and-neck … [showing] Biden with 46% support among likely U.S. voters to Trump’s 45%.” A week earlier, Biden led by four points.
To review: While the Democrats were doing their best to stir up support for their candidates and failing to do so, President Trump was closing the gap in polls even before the Republican National Convention had started.
An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to The New American, writing primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].
Courtesy of The New American