Goldman Sachs Expects 35-percent Growth in U.S. Economy in Third Quarter — Good for Trump
Written by Bob Adelmann
In a note to its clients on Thursday, international investment banking firm Goldman Sachs said it “upgraded” its estimate of the robust rebound of the U.S. economy for the third quarter, adding that the momentum will continue into the fourth quarter and 2021 as well:
We upgraded our near-term growth forecasts based on the much stronger-than-expected August jobs report and the solid summer data more generally….
Our forecast of 35 percent is now nearly 14 percentage points above [Wall Street’s] consensus….
Looking beyond this quarter, we remain upbeat on growth.… In our view, the combination of a still-very-high personal savings rate, and a likely vaccine, should lead to reaccelerating demand in these sectors.
Others are getting on board. Marko Kolanovic, a quantitative strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase told his clients two weeks ago: “We currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win.” Accordingly he told his clients to “adjust [their portfolios] for a potential Trump re-election.”
The day after Goldman Sachs issued its upgrade Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Ben Koltun confirmed, explaining why:
The economy continues to improve with voters feeling better about their economic future. Trump heralds a big Q3 GDP figure and the unemployment rate continues to drop.
At the same time, COVID-19 begins to get under control and any re-emergence in the Fall is at a far lower rate than expected.
The October surprise is Trump’s announcement of a viable vaccine that can soon begin distribution, with Dr. Anthony Fauci and other scientists and doctors with bipartisan credentials backing up Trump’s claim of its viability.
Koltun added that Trump’s chances for reelection would improve even further if the president “cleans Biden’s clock” in their first debate, scheduled for September 29.
It won’t be just the robust rebound in the economy that gets the president another four years in the White House. The president is enjoying enormous gains among young black and Hispanic voters, the “enthusiasm” gap between him and his opponent is large, his campaign has a much stronger “ground game,” he has retained the “swing” voters from his 2016 election, and voters are reacting negatively to the violence perpetrated by Antifa and BLM.
His campaign is also being helped by the increasing awareness that the mainstream polls are being manipulated and skewed toward Trump’s opponent. And the “cancel culture” fomented by the far left is keeping many respondents to pollsters from telling them they will support the president. They are being called the “shy voter” and make up as many as one out of every eight Republican respondents and one out of every nine Independents.
There’s another factor working for Trump’s advantage: voter anger at being targeted by the Left for being sexist, intolerant, uncompassionate, bigots and homophobes. As Rush Limbaugh’s brother David explained:
Conservative, patriotic Americans and everything they hold dear have been under relentless bombardment by the militant left in all sectors of our society — culture, academia, Hollywood, the media.
Everywhere they turn, they’re told that America sucks; that they are racist; that they are uncompassionate Christian bigots, homophobes and sexists.
They are vilified as intolerant by the most intolerant of people and censored by those waving the banner of free speech.
Limbaugh said that they’re also frustrated as they have no voice, no ability to respond, to challenge the mainstream media consensus view: “They have their talk radio and television defenders, but they’ve had no one in elective office to stand up for them and their essential goodness and dignity … but in Trump they’ve found their fearless, tireless advocate.”
And when November 3 rolls around millions of them will be able to express that frustration at the ballot box. As Limbaugh said: “Trump has given freedom-loving patriots a voice, and they will never forget it.”
An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to The New American, primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].
Courtesy of The New American